Third Round Wide Receiver Trends Since 2015

By: Bryant Barstad

What can the Green Bay Packers expect from Amari Rodgers in 2022? The Aaron Rodgers directed addition of Randall Cobb resulted in Amari only playing approximately 10 percent of the offensive snaps in his 2021 rookie season. Amari Rodgers also spent much of his season as the primary punt returner.

29 wide receivers have been drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft since 2015, Amari Rodgers had the seventh lowest receiving yards in his rookie year out of those 29. Of the six wide receivers that had fewer yards than Amari, only two of them had a significant improvement the next year and neither had a particularly productive career. Interestingly enough, one of the two players was former Green Bay Packer Ty Montgomery, the most recent third round wide receiver for Green Bay before Amari Rodgers. 

Amari also has the fewest receiving yards for a rookie third round WR since 2018 (unless you count Jalen Hurd who never caught a ball in the NFL). Unfortunately for Amari and the Green Bay Packers, the minimum receiving yards for a rookie third round wide receiver that has gone on to have what you could consider a decent career is 477 by Kenny Golladay. Wide receivers selected in 2020 and 2021 are still too early in their career to judge fairly against this trend. Looking at the wide receivers drafted between 2015 and 2019, 14 of 21 third round wide receivers drafted had 427 yards or fewer their rookie year, and only two of them, Chris Conley and Tre'Quan Smith, have gone on to have what you could consider solid support roles for their teams. 

Overall, Amari Rodgers' rookie year doesn't seem to bode well for his future prospects, but he may very well have been a victim of the tumultuous off-season for the Packers;  If Amari would have played roughly 30 percent of offensive snaps like Dyami Brown did his rookie year in Washington, it would be feasible to believe he could have finished with similar statistics and we'd be looking for a nice second year jump. For now, the best the Packers can hope for is that Amari turns into a role player like Chris Conley or Tre'Quan Smith rather than follow the path of the other 12 (roughly 57 percent) third round wide receivers drafted between 2015 and 2019 whose careers could be considered a “bust.”