The Green Bay Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders this past offseason and added several players to fill the void, namely Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and training camp standout Romeo Doubs. The Packers have retained Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as well in the receiver room.
The Green Bay Packers did also let Marquez Valdes-Scantling leave in free agency, however his role will likely be filled on day 1 by Christian Watson who has the size and speed to grow into a formidable deep threat. That still leaves the production of Davante Adams to replace and based on the offseason moves and quotes from Head Coach Matt LaFleur the Packers seemed committed to filling that production by committee.
Matt LaFleur has described the wide receiver room as "fluid" several times and has also said the Packers will go with "the guy who gives us the best chance to win." To me that suggests that the Packers may go with a hot hand approach at the position and while the Packers may not have a wide receiver who finishes with a WR1 looking season, there may be weeks where any given receiver could have a WR1 game. That said Packers fans should begin adopting the mindset that the Packers will not have one single wide receiver that sees double digit targets and receptions week in and week out. More to that, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have had success in seasons like that.
You have to go back a while to find a season that Aaron Rodgers didn't have a true number one receiver, back before Davante Adams and before Jordy Nelson was a household name. Going all the way back to 2012 was the last time Rodgers and the Packers didn't have a 1,000 yard wide receiver. Randall Cobb was the leading receiver with 954 yards on 80 receptions. During that 2012 season the Packers leading rusher, Alex Green, with 464 yards, not exactly demanding the kind of attention that Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will this season, meaning the Packers' current stable of wide receivers should have more opportunity to face one on one coverage while teams are concerned about stopping or slowing the Packers' run game. The second leading rusher on the 2012 Packers? Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers was second on the 2012 Green Bay Packers with 259 rushing yards on the season.
You might hear those stats and think it must have been a rough season for the Packers in 2012, but the Packers went 11-5 that season. The next thing someone might say is they only played bad teams, also not true, the Packers had the fifth ranked strength of schedule in 2012. The next argument someone may pivot to is that the Packers must have just squeaked by winning close games, also not the case, the Packers were fifth in scoring in 2012 at 27.1 points per game.
So what kind of production could the Packers get from the wide receivers? Looking at Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, the veterans, first, I took their careers and found what their per season averages were, and assuming these players have just the average of what they have done in their careers, these seasons would still be helpful for the Packers. Allen Lazard's average season calculates to 44 receptions for 597 yards and five touchdowns. While it is certainly conceivable that Allen Lazard takes a step forward and exceeds all of these numbers in his fourth season, I'm showing the averages just to show what these numbers could add up to for Aaron Rodgers before factoring in tight ends, running backs and anyone else who catches passes from Rodgers.
Randall Cobb has played 11 seasons in the NFL and his career averages calculate to 71 receptions, 859 yards and 6.8 touchdowns. These numbers may be a little high for what Randall Cobb may be expecting in 2022 but are certainly within the realm of possibility provided Cobb can remain healthy.
The last of the veterans I looked at is Sammy Watkins, over eight seasons in the NFL Sammy Watkins averages per season over his career are 60 receptions, 869 yards and five touchdowns. Like Cobb, if Watkins can stay healthy these numbers are certainly within the realm of possibility.
Switching to the rookies, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, I looked over the last five seasons for some notable players drafted in the second and fourth rounds and looked at their rookie seasons and averaged them out. For second round picks I looked at Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore, both drafted last season, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Laviska Shenault drafted in 2020. Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown who were drafted in 2019, Cortland Sutton and Christian Kirk who were drafted in 2018 and JuJu Smith-Schuster who was drafted in 2017. Now I know non-Packer fans will say things like "Christian Watson isn't as good as those guys", well they were all second round talents based on the fact that they were all drafted in the second round, and I'm looking strictly at the averages of their rookie seasons. I am also aware that it is possible that Watson doesn't play as well as these guys did their rookie seasons, but I am looking at what a potential rookie season could look like based on the averages of these 10 players rookie seasons. The average of these 10 players rookie seasons is 61 receptions, 838 yards and five touchdowns, I think I speak for all Packers fans when I say we would be thrilled with those type of numbers.
Finally I looked at fourth round rookie seasons from the last five years at wide receiver. The players I have drawn averages for are Amon-Ra St. Brown, drafted last season, Gabriel Davis drafted in 2020, Keke Coutee who was drafted in 2018 and Dede Westbrook who was drafted in 2017. There weren't a ton of fourth round rookies to compare to but looking at these players per game averages from their rookie seasons. Keke Coutee's rookie season he had Deshaun Watson at quarterback but also had DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller on his team, Dede Westbrook had Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler as his quarterbacks and led Jacksonville in receiving. Gabriel Davis had a capable Josh Allen as his quarterback but had to compete with Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and John Brown for targets. Amon-Ra was forced into a WR1 with Detroit last season so there is a variance of roles and production among these four receivers, their averages come out to 68 receptions, 799 yards and four touchdowns. While the hype coming from Romeo Doubs in camp makes these numbers seem possible, we will have to wait and see what he can do, but like the possible numbers for Watson, these numbers would be fantastic for Doubs to put up in his rookie season.
So what do all these averages add up to to help Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense? Adding Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson's rookie potential averages and Romeo Doubs' rookie potential averages add up to 304 receptions, 3,962 yards and 26 touchdowns. Again, that is before you factor in tight ends, running backs and whoever else gets some opportunity at wide receiver outside those five discussed. Aaron Rodgers may be in for another season very similar to his 2012 campaign and the Packers in for another run at a Super Bowl.
.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment