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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Roundtable: What should the Green Bay Packers do with the cap space freed from the Jaire Alexander extension?

 The Green Bay Packers' signing Jaire Alexander to a four-year $84 million contract opened up about $6 million in cap space, giving the Packers just over 17 million in cap space heading into the 2022 season, according to overthecap.com. The Packers do have to sign draft picks Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs yet, but their impact on the cap should be minimal. So with just under $17 million in cap space, what should the Packers do with that money? The four of us at Wisco Confidential offer our thoughts:

Bryant:

The first option is locking up another one of the Green Bay Packers young studs: Elgton Jenkins, Jenkins is coming off an ACL injury but looking at players like Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari, this isn't uncharted territory for the Packers. The question then becomes, do you pay Jenkins as a tackle or a guard, if you pay him as a tackle, arguably one that is top 10 in the NFL, front load his contract a bit, you stick him at right tackle when he is healthy and you don't have to worry about the right tackle position for the next five years. Also, his versatility is far too valuable to lose.

The second option is to hold on to the cap space for any big trade opportunities during the season (Tyler Lockett could be a deadline target) and if that doesn't happen, roll it over to help the cap in 2023 where as it stands, the Packers are $7 million over the cap (a number that pales in comparison to where the team was heading into the 2022 offseason). Aaron Jones and Preston Smith will likely be restructure targets next year and the Packers will be looking to extend Rashan Gary.

The final option I think the Green Bay Packers could take a look at, and it's possible I'm in the minority on this player because of the injury history, is Julio Jones. Signing Julio Jones to a lower base, high incentive deal (similar to the one Sammy Watkins got) would give Aaron Rodgers a target that, if healthy, could eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and give opposing defenses a wide receiver they need to game plan for, something Green Bay may not have on their roster currently (Watson and Doubs are unknowns until they get on the field). Furthermore, who better for Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to learn from than a future Hall of Fame wide receiver.

Simon:

The first option I would suggest is the Green Bay Packers signing Jaquiski Tartt. One thing that surprised me coming out of  the draft was the Packers not picking any safety depth. After Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos, the Packers are left with a lot of question marks. With the departure of Henry Black, the Packers are currently left with Vernon Scott, Innis Gaines, Shawn Davis and Tre Sterling. I believe bringing in a proven guy like Tartt in the case one of the starters gets hurt is a must and Tartt may be attainable on an affordable contract.

I may be in the minority on my wide receiver target, but I think the Packers should bring in Odell Beckham Jr. for the end of season/playoff run. After OBJ signed with the Rams, he played in eight games in the regular season and had 305 yards and five touchdowns. In the postseason, he played four games and had 21 catches for 288 yards and two more touchdowns. That's pretty impressive postseason production for a midseason acquisition and that production could help boost the Packers receiving room. After his injury in the Super Bowl, waiting to hear more on his injury/recovery, he could be a potentially inexpensive signing.

I do believe the Packers will keep a chunk of the leftover cap for late offseason and midseason acquisitions. Since Brian Gutekunst took over as the Green Bay Packers General Manager, he has often used a bit of the cap space on small contracts in the later part of the offseason and in the middle of the season. Recent examples include: Christian Kirksey, Rick Wagner, De'Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, Dennis Kelly, Whitney Mercilus and Jaylon Smith. Even though not all of these players panned out, Gutekunst is always on the lookout for guys to shore up a position of weakness.

Jake:

After the draft your team really starts to take shape for the upcoming season, but your team could have a few small holes remaining that need to be filled if you hope to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl like the Packers hope to for the first time since the 2010 season. Personally, my first thought, I would love to see the Packers work extensions for Rashan Gary and/or Elgton Jenkins. The Packers could also consider looking at the contracts of Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos. However, the one hole that remains, in my eyes, on this Packers roster, is another reliable veteran wideout for the back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers and Head Coach Matt LaFleur. I'm not saying they have to sign a wide receiver, because I trust the guys in the room and the coaches to get the young guys ready, but here are three potential options:

Option one, Julio Jones, yes Julio is very injury prone and getting up there in age at 33, but I believe he still has plenty left in the tank, him and Aaron could absolutely dominate together and Jones was rated as the third best blocking wide receiver in his limited play with the Tennessee Titans in 2021.

Option two, Will Fuller, Fuller is a 28 year old burner, coming into the NFL Fuller ran a 4.32 40 yard dash. In 11 games in 2020 (he missed most of 2021 with injuries) Fuller recorded 53 receptions for 879 yards and eight touchdowns. So you can see Fuller has speed, reliable hands and the ability to back up the defense which Rodgers would love. Coming off an injury plagued season Fuller may be looking for a short prove-it type deal before looking for a long term contract in 2023.

Final option, Odell Beckham Jr., OBJ is 29 and since being brought in to LA after leaving Cleveland OBJ showed some real value! I know he's coming off the ACL injury, but I say sign him up, let him rehab while he and Rodgers talk Xs and Os, let them figure things out and when he's healthy and ready to go, put him on the field.

Tyler:

I echo the thoughts of my co-writers thoughts on working on extensions for key players like Elgton Jenkins and Rashan Gary. I also agree with Jake's thoughts of bringing in Will Fuller, a guy the Green Bay Packers have shown interest in in the past. 

Where I still see an opportunity to bring depth is outside linebacker, behind Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, the Packers have a lot of young unknowns. While it is absolutely in the realm of possibility that one of them steps up, whether it be someone like Jonathon Garvin, Tipa Galeai or the newly drafted Kingsley Enagbare. I would propose bringing another veteran to that group to play a role similar to that of Whitney Mercilus in his limited time last season. Here are a few potential options:

AJ Klein, Klein played for the Buffalo Bills last season and will be 31 on July 30th. Last season in 15 games, four starts, Klein recorded 35 tackles, four tackles for loss, five passes defensed and an interception.

Malcolm Smith, Smith will be 33 on July 5th, he played 15 games in 2021, started six, for the Cleveland Browns. Smith recorded 51 tackles, three for loss, five passes defensed and two interceptions.

Justin Houston, Houston started 15 games for the Baltimore Ravens in 2021, the 33 year old recorded 34 tackles, six for loss, 4.5 sacks, 17 quarterback hits, one pass defensed and one forced fumble.

Alec Ogletree, he will be 31 at the end of September, Ogletree started 16 games for the Chicago Bears in 2021 and recorded 87 tackles, five tackles for loss, four passes defensed and forced one fumble.

Any of these guys later in their careers could be candidates for short term deals if they can't find anything long term in free agency as the season draws nearer and any of them could help bolster the depth and give trusted reps and valuable rest to Rashan Gary and Preston Smith at outside linebacker.

Stay tuned for more Wisco Confidential content and tune in to the Wisco Fanatics show every Wednesday at 4 p.m. CT on Facebook and YouTube to keep up with the latest in Wisconsin sports. 

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Don't Write Off Amari Rodgers


By: Simon Janeczek

After an off-season where the Packers traded away Davante Adams to the Raiders, the receiver room looks a little bare. Even after the additions of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs, the receiver room does not have an established receiver to handle the load. While it may not appear that there is a true number one wide receiver, I do believe that many people are sleeping on the possibility of Amari Rodgers helping with the wide receiver production.

Amari Rodgers is a second year wide receiver out of Clemson who was picked in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft. After a disappointing rookie season where he played about 10% of the total offensive snaps and at times exhibited poor special teams’ performance, it’s time to look forward for what he can contribute to the 2022-2023 campaign.

At the end of the year, he totaled only four catches for 45 yards, with much of his playing time coming as a returner. The good news is he has a very defined role as a slot receiver due to his size of 5’9.5" and 212 lbs. The only other person to compete with slot snaps is Randall Cobb, who is in the twilight years of his career and has struggled with injuries. There is reason to believe there will be opportunity for Amari Rodgers to find many more offensive snaps than last year. 

Historically rookie wide receivers often don’t fare well in the NFL and take a couple season to adapt. Randall Cobb didn't have the most tremendous rookie season of all time after being selected in the second round of the 2011 draft. Most will remember his kickoff return against the Saints on opening day, but only amassed 25 catches for 375 yards and 1 touchdown. In his second season, Cobb burst on the scene with 954 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Is it fair to expect the same production in his second season from Amari Rodgers? Probably not, but I think it’s fair to assume there will be an uptick in his production and time spent on the field as a receiver. At the end of the day we need to be patient with players as they come along this NFL season. Discussing cutting a third round pick serves no benefit for this squad if we don’t give him time to develop. I believe with the right coaching, development behind a pro such as Randall Cobb, and the opportunity to play behind one of the best Quarterbacks in the league, Amari Rodgers can help guide the passing attack to a successful season in 2022.

There is growing optimism among Packers coaches that Amari Rodgers could be a factor this upcoming season. Packers wide receiver coach Jason Vrable was quoted saying "I feel really good about Amari. Cobby (Randall Cobb) bumped me the other day and was like "Yo, you can feel it from him." I just smiled. It's just the start right now." Vrable also said Amari Rodgers is "stronger, faster and in the best shape of his life."

Prediction: 560 Yards and 3 TDs.


Monday, May 16, 2022

Third Round Wide Receiver Trends Since 2015

By: Bryant Barstad

What can the Green Bay Packers expect from Amari Rodgers in 2022? The Aaron Rodgers directed addition of Randall Cobb resulted in Amari only playing approximately 10 percent of the offensive snaps in his 2021 rookie season. Amari Rodgers also spent much of his season as the primary punt returner.

29 wide receivers have been drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft since 2015, Amari Rodgers had the seventh lowest receiving yards in his rookie year out of those 29. Of the six wide receivers that had fewer yards than Amari, only two of them had a significant improvement the next year and neither had a particularly productive career. Interestingly enough, one of the two players was former Green Bay Packer Ty Montgomery, the most recent third round wide receiver for Green Bay before Amari Rodgers. 

Amari also has the fewest receiving yards for a rookie third round WR since 2018 (unless you count Jalen Hurd who never caught a ball in the NFL). Unfortunately for Amari and the Green Bay Packers, the minimum receiving yards for a rookie third round wide receiver that has gone on to have what you could consider a decent career is 477 by Kenny Golladay. Wide receivers selected in 2020 and 2021 are still too early in their career to judge fairly against this trend. Looking at the wide receivers drafted between 2015 and 2019, 14 of 21 third round wide receivers drafted had 427 yards or fewer their rookie year, and only two of them, Chris Conley and Tre'Quan Smith, have gone on to have what you could consider solid support roles for their teams. 

Overall, Amari Rodgers' rookie year doesn't seem to bode well for his future prospects, but he may very well have been a victim of the tumultuous off-season for the Packers;  If Amari would have played roughly 30 percent of offensive snaps like Dyami Brown did his rookie year in Washington, it would be feasible to believe he could have finished with similar statistics and we'd be looking for a nice second year jump. For now, the best the Packers can hope for is that Amari turns into a role player like Chris Conley or Tre'Quan Smith rather than follow the path of the other 12 (roughly 57 percent) third round wide receivers drafted between 2015 and 2019 whose careers could be considered a “bust.”